Ahead of Ghana’s Mid-Year Budget, Here’s What’s Driving the 2025 Revenue Plan

As Ghana’s Finance Minister prepares to present the 2025 Mid-Year Budget Review, one key question looms: Where will the revenue come from?

Earlier this year, the government unveiled a bold plan to generate GHS 10.28 billion in additional revenue in 2025 through a mix of new taxes, revised rates, and one-off payments. With inflationary pressures and public spending demands rising, this visual breakdown gives us a preview of the government’s fiscal playbook going into tomorrow's presentation.

Changes in Tax Policies driving Ghana's 2025 Budget

🔍 Summary of Key Tax Measures

Policy	Projected Revenue Impact (GHS bn)
VAT on Residential Property	+2.78
Reduce Tax Refund Rate (6% ➝ 4%)	+4.22
Growth & Sustainability Levy (1% ➝ 3%)	+3.95
One-Time Dividend from MIIF	+2.10
Informal Sector Tax Reforms	+1.14
Voluntary Disclosure Expansion	+1.18
VAT on Non-Life Insurance	+0.16
Remove E-Levy	-2.48
Remove WHT on Lottery Winnings	-0.20
Emission Levy & VAT Exemptions (Not Implemented)	0.00

🧩 Key Highlights

• Top Gainer: The reduction in tax refunds is projected to yield GHS 4.22 billion, the single largest contributor.

• Biggest Cut: Scrapping the e-levy will reduce collections by GHS 2.48 billion, but it may boost mobile money adoption.

• Real Estate in the Net: For the first time, VAT on residential property enters the fold, adding GHS 2.78 billion.

• Levy Lift: Increasing the Growth & Sustainability Levy from 1% to 3% nets GHS 3.95 billion.

• Windfall Inclusion: The plan includes a one-time dividend of GHS 2.1 billion from MIIF, signaling pressure to find non-tax revenue.

📉 Revenue Losses vs. Gains

While some tax cuts (like E-Levy and lottery WHT) reduce the revenue base by GHS 2.68 billion, the combined gains from the remaining measures still result in a net revenue increase of GHS 10.28 billion even after adjusting for inflation.

🤔 What to Watch for in Tomorrow’s Mid-Year Budget

1. Will these measures be retained or revised? Public pressure around VAT and refund cuts could force tweaks.

2. How will inflation adjustments impact targets? The current projection nets off an inflation drag of GHS 2.6 billion.

3. Can informal sector reforms deliver? The estimated GHS 1.14 billion depends heavily on enforcement and outreach.

4. What new policies might be announced? The government may add or revise items to plug gaps or respond to IMF benchmarks.

   
   

📌 Conclusion

Ghana’s 2025 revenue strategy is bold, balancing relief with recovery. As the country awaits the Mid-Year Budget Review, this snapshot offers an early lens into the government’s fiscal intentions. Whether these measures will hold or evolve remains to be seen but tomorrow’s update will be crucial in shaping the conversation.