BoG Projects Single-Digit Inflation by 2025 as Teachers Threaten Strike Over Salary Arrears

Ghana's economic landscape this week presents a tale of promising macroeconomic indicators against a backdrop of pressing social challenges. While the central bank forecasts a significant milestone in inflation control and government debt instruments regain investor confidence, the education sector faces potential disruption from unpaid teachers. Here’s a comprehensive analysis of these developments.

Teachers Threaten September 30 Demonstration Over 12-Month Salary Arrears

The Aggrieved Newly Posted Teachers group has issued a one-week ultimatum to the government to resolve concerns over the non-payment of salaries, threatening a major demonstration on September 30, 2025.

The group, comprising graduates from Colleges of Education and universities, reports that members have gone unpaid for 12 months and 8 months, respectively. Despite petitioning the Ministry of Education on September 8, they claim to have received no meaningful response.

Simon Kofi Nartey, the group's Lead Convener, stated they have "no option but to take to the streets" to draw public attention to their plight. The group has already met with the Greater Accra Regional Police Command to arrange the demonstration, signaling the seriousness of their intent and the potential for significant disruption to the education sector if their demands remain unmet.

Bank of Ghana Projects Single-Digit Inflation Before End of 2025

In a significant economic forecast, the Bank of Ghana (BoG) has revealed it expects Ghana to achieve single-digit inflation before the end of 2025, sooner than initially projected.

Dr. Philip Abradu-Otoo, Director of Research at the Central Bank, disclosed that initially "we were expecting to hit single digits in the first quarter of 2026." However, based on current economic developments, this timeline has been moved forward to the last quarter of 2025.

This optimistic projection is anchored on:

• The Central Bank's current monetary tightening stance

• Ongoing fiscal consolidation efforts

• Improved food supplies accelerating disinflation

• Sustained rapid disinflation over recent months

  
  

Dr. Abradu-Otoo explained that this positive outlook was a key factor behind the Monetary Policy Committee's recent decision to cut the key lending rate by 350 basis points to 21.5%. He assured that the BoG remains committed to maintaining stability through consistent policies and reserve building.

Government Records 14.1% Oversubscription in Treasury Bills Auction

In a remarkable turnaround, the government recorded a 14.1% oversubscription in its treasury bills auction just one week after missing its target, signaling restored investor confidence in Ghana's debt instruments.

The auction results showed:

• Total bids received: GH¢3.44 billion

• Total bids accepted: GH¢3.01 billion

• 91-day bill: GH¢2.57 billion accepted of GH¢2.58 billion tendered (74% of total bids)

• 182-day bill: GH¢608.8 million accepted of GH¢613.8 million tendered

• 364-day bill: GH¢247.3 million accepted of GH¢250.4 million tendered

  
  

Yields showed mixed movement:

• 91-day bill: Increased by 3.0 basis points to 10.45%

• 182-day bill: Decreased to 12.36% from 12.41%

• 364-day bill: Decreased by 9.0 basis points to 12.88%

  
  

This oversubscription demonstrates growing investor appetite for government securities amid improving economic conditions.

Investor's Insight – Ghana Stock Exchange: CLYD Leads Gainers with 45.45% Surge

The Ghana Stock Exchange showed strong performance with CLYD leading the gainers with an impressive 45.45% increase. Other notable performers included ETI (+15.58%), GCB (+11.39%), and BOPP (+9.99%), while UNIL declined by 1.96%. This robust performance reflects growing investor confidence in Ghana's equity market.

This week's developments highlight the complex interplay between Ghana's macroeconomic progress and social challenges. The BoG's projection of single-digit inflation represents a significant milestone that could enhance economic stability and investor confidence. The treasury bills oversubscription further reinforces this positive trend.

However, the teachers' salary crisis serves as a reminder that economic indicators must translate into improved living conditions and timely compensation for public sector workers. The potential disruption to education underscores the importance of addressing social concerns alongside macroeconomic management.

For investors, the improving inflation outlook and strong demand for government securities create a favorable environment, though social stability remains crucial for sustained economic progress. The equity market's strong performance suggests confidence in both specific companies and the broader economic direction.

Stay tuned to the Cedi Board® for real-time updates on Ghana's financial pulse. From prices and policy to investment tips that help you make sense of the numbers.