Fuel Prices Drop, IMF Ups Growth Forecast, and BoG Regulates Digital Credit

The Cedi is making big moves! With the IMF raising Ghana's 2025 growth forecast to 4% and a stronger Cedi triggering an immediate drop in fuel prices, the economy is showing impressive resilience. Key financial decisions, from the Bank of Ghana’s move to regulate the digital lending space to new perspectives on property investment, are setting the stage for the future. Let's break down the latest numbers and news shaping Ghana's economic landscape.

Market Stability: T-Bills Plummet and Fuel Prices Fall

The 364-day Treasury Bill rate has sharply dropped to 11.40%, a massive 10.92 percentage point fall from October 2024. This significant decrease is an authoritative signal that the government's borrowing costs are falling, reflecting increasing investor confidence and lower expectations for future inflation.

In welcome news for the everyday Ghanaian, the Cedi’s appreciation (USD/GHS at ¢11.26) is directly translating into consumer relief: fuel prices are dropping today. A stronger local currency makes dollar-priced imports cheaper for marketers. The average LPG price per litre is also down to ¢14.00, a 17.64% reduction from a year ago, providing tangible relief at the pump and helping to cool broader living costs.

IMF's Outlook: Stronger Growth, Manageable Inflation

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded Ghana's projected 2025 economic growth to 4%, reflecting a positive trajectory under the ongoing fiscal recovery program. This confidence is supported by a resilient economy that has already outperformed initial expectations, driven largely by sectors like services. To the everyday Ghanaian, this means the national income is expanding faster, creating a more stable foundation for job creation and business.

On the inflation front (the rate at which your daily cost of living rises) the IMF projects 12% by the end of 2025. While slightly above the government's target, this forecast is a dramatic reduction from the 21.5% seen in late 2024. For context, inflation recently hit a single-digit low of 9.4% in September, showing that price stabilization is well underway.

Cedi Strength Delivers Immediate Consumer Relief

In welcome news for commuters and businesses, fuel prices are set to drop today. This reduction is primarily a result of the Cedi’s recent appreciation against the US Dollar. Since fuel is imported and priced in dollars, a stronger Cedi means Oil Marketing Companies pay less for their inventory. This provides immediate, tangible relief at the pump for consumers and should help further cool off general inflationary pressures.

New Rules to End Predatory Digital Lending

Starting November 3, 2025, the Bank of Ghana (BoG) will begin accepting applications for Digital Credit Services licenses. This move is crucial for the rapidly growing fintech sector. The new rules, including a GHS 2 million minimum capital and a GHS 10,000 transaction limit, are designed to create a more stable and trustworthy digital lending environment. Crucially, the main goal is consumer protection, ending abusive debt collection tactics and ensuring transparency in loan terms.

Investor’s Insight: REITs vs. Direct Property

With Ghana's property values rising fast, the real estate market is booming. Investors have two key routes: Direct Property Ownership (buying and managing buildings yourself) or a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT).

REITs are simpler: you invest money, and the trust uses it to buy and manage properties. You earn returns through distributions (like dividends) from rent and sales, all without the hassle of management. Direct ownership offers full control and potentially higher profits, but demands more time and expertise. Both are excellent options for capitalizing on Ghana’s growing market. Source: VAAL Ghana 2025

#WorldFoodDay: A Focus on Community Action

Today, on World Food Day, the need for food security is amplified. Right here in Accra, renowned Ghanaian chef Chef Abbys' "The Big Street Feast" is dominating social media, partnering with Yango Ghana to feed over 15,000 people in underserved communities, highlighting the power of collective action.

In Summary: The IMF’s upgraded growth forecast affirms Ghana’s recovery path, while the immediate relief from the strengthening Cedi is a positive sign for consumers. Coupled with a necessary regulatory push by the BoG to stabilize the digital finance sector, the economic landscape is rapidly moving towards greater stability and opportunity.

Don't miss a beat of Ghana's daily economic pulse. Follow our blog for daily Cedi Board updates!