Fuel Prices Set to Increase as Cedi Weakens. Ghana Targets 60% Coconut Export Growth

Ghana's economic landscape faces renewed pressure this week as currency depreciation drives fuel prices upward, while the government pushes forward with ambitious agricultural export targets and navigates challenges in domestic debt markets. Here's a comprehensive analysis of the latest developments.

Petroleum Prices Set for Significant Increase as Cedi Weakens

Ghanaians are bracing for a substantial increase in petroleum product prices starting Tuesday, September 16, 2025, according to the latest projections from the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC).

The anticipated adjustments include:

• Petrol: 3.66% to 5.86% increase, reaching approximately GHS 14.17 per litre

• Diesel: 2.12% to 4.32% increase, potentially retailing at GHS 14.67 per litre

• LPG: 2.23% to 4.23% increase, pushing prices to around GHS 14 per kilogram

  
  

The primary driver behind these increases is the recent depreciation of the Ghana cedi, which weakened from GHS 11.20 to GHS 12.07 against the US dollar during the review period—a 7.76% drop. This brings the currency's year-to-date loss to 14.02%, ranking among the steepest globally according to Bloomberg.

COMAC attributed the cedi's decline to "strong demand for the dollar for import ahead of the festive season." Notably, international prices for finished petroleum products actually declined during the period (petrol -2.52%, diesel -4.12%, LPG -2.69%), but the cedi's depreciation completely offset this relief.

Ghana Aims for 60% Annual Growth in Coconut Export Revenues

In a bold agricultural development initiative, the government has set an ambitious target to increase annual coconut export earnings by 60%, from $11.4 million to $18.1 million.

Dr. Peter Boamah Otokunor, Director of Presidential Initiatives on Agriculture and Agribusiness, announced that this strategy is designed to strengthen Ghana's position as Africa's leading coconut exporter while enhancing global market competitiveness.

The initiative is part of the Three Million Coconut Seedlings Program, which aims to:

• Expand cultivation by 20,000 hectares

• Increase total cultivated area from 90,000 to 110,000 hectares (eventually reaching 150,000 hectares)

• Dramatically scale production through elite seedling distribution

  
  

Farmers, cooperatives, and agri-preneurs can register for the program via www.piaa.gov.gh until September 30, 2025. Additionally, Ghana is spearheading the establishment of the African Coconut Board (AFRICOBOD), which will be headquartered in the country to unite coconut-producing nations across the continent.

Treasury Bills Undersubscribed as Government Misses Target by GH¢2.03 Billion

Ghana's domestic debt market faced headwinds last week as Treasury bills were undersubscribed by 24.59%, with the government accepting bids totaling GH¢6.24 billion against a target of GH¢8.28 billion.

The breakdown shows:

• 91-day bill: GH¢5.25 billion accepted out of GH¢5.49 billion tendered

• 182-day bill: GH¢784 million accepted out of GH¢789 million submitted

• 364-day bill: GH¢209 million accepted out of GH¢214 million tendered

Analysts attribute the weak investor appetite to persistent market concerns and the sizable issuance target driven by high upcoming maturities. Meanwhile, yields showed mixed movement:

• 91-day yield: Rose 11 basis points to 10.53%

• 182-day yield: Inched up 3 basis points to 12.44%

• 364-day yield: Slipped 2 basis points to 12.95%

  
  

The compression of the 364-day yield reflects the Treasury's deliberate effort to lower borrowing costs as part of its broader debt management strategy.

Investor's Insight – MTN Ghana Shares Up 50.40% YTD

Despite broader economic challenges, MTN Ghana shares have delivered strong performance, recording an impressive 50.40% year-to-date gain. This resilience demonstrates investor confidence in the telecommunications sector's growth potential and adaptability to evolving market conditions.

The development highlights the interconnected nature of Ghana's economic challenges and opportunities. The cedi's depreciation continues to create headwinds for consumers and businesses through higher fuel prices, while the government pursues innovative agricultural strategies to boost export earnings and diversify the economy.

The Treasury bill undersubscription suggests ongoing investor caution despite efforts to manage debt costs. However, the strong performance of equities like MTN Ghana indicates that selective opportunities remain for investors willing to navigate this complex environment.

For policymakers, the challenge remains to stabilize the currency while executing on growth initiatives like the coconut expansion program that could provide more sustainable economic foundations in the medium to long term.

Stay tuned to the Cedi Board® for real-time updates on Ghana's financial pulse. From prices and policy to investment tips that help you make sense of the numbers.