Ghana’s Non-Oil Revenue Outlook Strengthens as Fuel Prices Fall and Newmont Launches Ahafo North Mine

Today’s Cedi Board highlights a combination of easing fuel prices, renewed investor momentum, and promising fiscal projections. Prices of Goil Super and Staroil Diesel have dropped to GH¢12.52 and GH¢12.47 respectively, reflecting lower global crude prices and a stronger Ghanaian Cedi. At the same time, Ghana’s average LPG price has fallen by 27 percent compared to last year. Beyond the energy market, the IMF projects a 0.6 percent rise in Ghana’s non-oil revenue-to-GDP ratio by 2026, while Newmont’s US$900 million Ahafo North gold mine begins production. Let’s analyze the latest data and emerging trends shaping Ghana’s economic landscape.

Market Movers

The latest decline in fuel and LPG prices appears to result from both external and domestic developments. Goil’s Super petrol price has dropped by approximately 3.5 percent to GH¢12.52, and Staroil’s Diesel is down by 3.9 percent to GH¢12.47, following pricing adjustments announced by Oil Marketing Companies in late October. This downward revision, effective in November, coincides with a significant fall in global crude oil prices, which have reached a five-month low according to energy market data cited by MyJoyOnline.

Internationally, crude prices have been pressured by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, softer Chinese demand, and trade-related market corrections. Lower benchmark prices for refined petroleum products have therefore translated into cheaper imports for Ghana.

LPG prices have followed a similar trend, falling to GH¢13.87 per litre from GH¢19.00 a year ago. This drop is likely tied to reduced import costs and increased supply efficiency within the downstream sector. Overall, the downward adjustment in petroleum product prices could help ease inflationary pressures, lower transport costs, and provide modest relief for households and businesses in the final quarter of 2025.

Key Headlines: IMF Forecasts Revenue Growth & Newmont Opens Ahafo North Mine

IMF Projects 0.6 Percent Non-Oil Revenue Growth by 2026

The International Monetary Fund’s latest assessment indicates that Ghana’s non-oil revenue could rise by 0.6 percent of GDP in 2026, contingent on the full rollout of ongoing fiscal and tax administration reforms. The IMF attributes this potential improvement to a combination of VAT adjustments, enhanced compliance through digitization, and reforms in tax exemptions.

Key measures include broadening the VAT base, raising the rate from 10 percent to 12.5 percent in 2026, and introducing mandatory e-invoicing for large taxpayers. These efforts are expected to boost transparency and reduce tax evasion. The Ghana Revenue Authority’s adoption of risk-based auditing and improved enforcement capacity could further increase domestic revenue collection.

The projection aligns with Ghana’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF) program goals, which aim to raise the non-oil revenue-to-GDP ratio from 13.6 percent in 2022 to at least 16.5 percent by 2026. If effectively implemented, these measures could strengthen fiscal buffers, support public investment, and enhance debt sustainability.

Newmont Begins Commercial Production at Ahafo North

In the extractives sector, Newmont Mining Company has officially launched commercial production at its US$900 million Ahafo North gold mine in the Ahafo Region. The mine, which began operations on October 24, 2025, is projected to produce between 275,000 and 325,000 ounces of gold annually over the next five years. It consists of four open-pit mines and a standalone mill, located roughly 50 kilometers from the company’s Ahafo South operation.

The project created approximately 4,500 construction jobs and currently supports around 1,500 operational roles, including permanent and contracted staff. In addition to direct employment, the mine contributes to the Newmont Ahafo Development Foundation, which receives US$1 per ounce of gold sold and 1 percent of net pre-tax profit to fund local development initiatives.

The mine’s long-term contribution to Ghana’s gold exports and government revenues could be significant. By expanding the nation’s productive capacity, it strengthens the mining sector’s role as a driver of foreign exchange earnings and local economic activity.

Germany Pledges €65 Million for Youth and Renewable Energy

Germany’s pledge of €65 million (approximately GH¢823 million) during President Steinmeier’s state visit to Accra underscores growing development cooperation focused on youth employment and energy transition. The funding, which awaits parliamentary approval in Germany, will support technical training, vocational education, and renewable energy projects across Ghana. Plans include the expansion of TVET centers and the construction of a new nursing school near Kumasi to train about 200 nurses annually.

A portion of the funds will also target renewable energy expansion, particularly solar and bioenergy, in line with Ghana’s sustainability goals. The initiative coincides with discussions on a potential bilateral labor mobility agreement that could allow more Ghanaian youth to work in Germany.

Investor’s Insight: GCB Shares Hit All-Time High

Investor confidence in Ghana’s equity market appears to have improved sharply. GCB Bank’s share price has risen from GH¢6.37 in January to GH¢17.50 in November 2025, representing an approximate 175 percent year-to-date increase. The steady upward trend across the year suggests renewed optimism in the banking sector, likely reflecting expectations of stronger profitability following recent monetary stabilization and declining inflation.

The performance may also reflect increased investor appetite for financial stocks as yields on short-term government securities taper off. If sustained, this trend could signal a shift toward equities as a preferred investment channel for institutional and retail investors seeking higher long-term returns.

Trending Topic: #NAIMOS

The hashtag #NAIMOS has dominated national discourse following a violent confrontation involving the National Anti-Illegal Mining Operations Secretariat (NAIMOS) in the Ahafo Region. The clash, which occurred near Bronikrom-Hwidiem, involved the arrest of illegal miners and an ensuing attack by a large crowd allegedly led by an MP. Viral videos showing officers retreating from the scene have fueled widespread debate on law enforcement, political influence, and the risks faced by anti-galamsey task forces.

The Ghana Police Service and Parliament have both initiated investigations into the incident. Public reactions online are divided between support for NAIMOS’s enforcement role and criticism of political interference. The event has reignited broader discussions about illegal mining’s impact on water bodies, farmland, and rural livelihoods, as well as the ongoing challenge of ensuring consistent enforcement across regions.

Conclusion

Today’s Cedi Board reflects a cautiously optimistic outlook. Declining fuel and LPG prices suggest short-term inflation relief, while the IMF’s fiscal forecast and Newmont’s new gold mine point to medium-term revenue and export gains. Germany’s €65 million cooperation pledge further adds momentum to Ghana’s youth and renewable energy agenda. Together, these developments highlight a phase of gradual stabilization supported by fiscal reform, external investment, and improving market sentiment.

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