Key Numbers from the 2026 Mid-Year Fiscal Policy Review:

Ghana's macroeconomic outlook has improved significantly in the first half of 2026, according to the 2026 Mid-Year Fiscal Policy Review. After several years of economic adjustment under the IMF-supported programme, the country's key economic indicators point to stronger growth, lower inflation, declining public debt, and healthier external reserves.

Ghana's Economy in H1 2026: Four Strong Signals and One Key Risk

Growth Continues to Outperform Expectations

Real GDP expanded by 6.4% in the first quarter of 2026, exceeding the government's full-year growth target of 4.8%. This suggests that economic activity remains resilient despite a challenging global environment. Strong performance across mining, services, and agriculture has supported this expansion.

Inflation Falls to Multi-Year Lows

Headline inflation declined to 5.3% in June 2026, down sharply from 13.7% a year earlier. Lower food prices, tighter monetary policy, and exchange rate stability during much of the period contributed to the rapid disinflation. Inflation now sits comfortably within the Bank of Ghana's medium-term target range.

Public Debt Continues to Decline

Ghana's public debt has fallen to 45.0% of GDP, a remarkable improvement from the 2022 peak of 80.6%. Fiscal consolidation, stronger nominal GDP growth, and debt restructuring have significantly improved debt sustainability, helping restore investor confidence.

International Reserves Strengthen

Gross international reserves now provide approximately five months of import cover, well above the IMF's minimum adequacy threshold. This stronger reserve position enhances Ghana's ability to absorb external shocks and support exchange rate stability when necessary.

Fiscal Discipline Shows Continued Improvement

The fiscal deficit has narrowed substantially, reflecting stronger revenue mobilisation and more disciplined expenditure management. Maintaining this fiscal discipline will be critical for preserving macroeconomic stability over the medium term.

The Remaining Challenge: Currency Stability

Despite broad improvements across most economic indicators, exchange rate stability remains the principal risk. The Ghana cedi depreciated by approximately 7.9% against the US dollar during the first half of 2026, reversing part of its exceptional appreciation in 2025. While this movement remains modest by historical standards, sustained depreciation could place renewed pressure on inflation and external financing conditions.

Overall Assessment

The evidence suggests Ghana enters the second half of 2026 in a considerably stronger macroeconomic position than in previous years. Growth is outperforming expectations, inflation has largely been contained, debt levels continue to improve, and reserve buffers have strengthened. The primary policy challenge now is maintaining exchange rate stability while preserving fiscal discipline and supporting sustainable economic growth.

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