The Persistence of Power: Mapping the Duration of Military Rule in Africa's Current Military States

On November 26, 2025, the military in Guinea-Bissau dissolved the government, adding another nation to the growing list of African countries under military leadership.

As of today, seven African nations are under active military rule. More importantly, the data indicates that these are not short-term interim governments, but entrenched regimes with multi-year tenures.

Our latest infographic visualizes this shift, highlighting both the geographic spread and the duration of military control across the continent.

The Geographic Spread

The recent events in Guinea-Bissau mark a consolidation of military governance in West Africa. What was previously concentrated in the Sahelian interior has visibly expanded.

We now observe a contiguous bloc of nations under military command, including Mali, Guinea, Sudan, Burkina Faso, Niger, and the recent additions of Madagascar and Guinea-Bissau. For neighboring democracies like Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire, this represents a significant shift in the regional security architecture.

Defining "Continuous Military Rule"

To accurately measure the duration of these regimes, it is necessary to clarify the timeline for Mali and Burkina Faso.

Our analysis tracks the period of continuous military leadership, irrespective of internal leadership changes.

• Mali (August 2020 – Present): The timeline begins on August 18, 2020, when Col. Assimi Goïta overthrew President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta. Although a second consolidation of power occurred in May 2021—where Col. Goïta removed the interim President Bah N'Daw—military control has remained uninterrupted since the initial 2020 takeover.

• Burkina Faso (January 2022 – Present): The current period of military rule began on January 24, 2022, led by Lt-Col. Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba. While he was later ousted in a "coup within a coup" by Capt. Ibrahim Traoré on September 30, 2022 (citing a failure to contain the jihadist insurgency), the governance of the state has remained in military hands throughout this period.

3. The Duration Trends

The data challenges the assumption that coups are temporary correctives followed by swift transitions. The trend points toward long-term entrenchment:

• Mali has exceeded five years of military governance.

• Guinea and Sudan have both surpassed the four-year mark.

• Burkina Faso is approaching four years.

Guinea-Bissau is the newest entrant to this timeline. However, if it follows the regional precedent, the transition to civilian rule may be prolonged.

Conclusion

As 2025 draws to a close, the data presents a clear reality for ECOWAS and the African Union. The region is no longer dealing with isolated, temporary disruptions. Instead, it faces a consolidated bloc of military-led states where the duration of rule is measured in years, not months.